Tensions may increase but don't think 2012's the year. Too much electoral risk for Obama, too much military risk for Israel to strike without the US - Syria more likely alternative this year. Doves to get chance for Iran regime change through sanctions. Hawks to wait for intervention from a new Republican President or a second term Obama. If monetary policy erodes dollar confidence 2013-14, Iran conflict will sure up dollar demand and get the blame for rising oil prices. US military ultimate back-stop for dollar once central banks fail to convince.
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